Things To Know Before You Invest in Stocks (1. Inflation and Investment)

What is Inflation?

You've heard about inflation on the newspaper, television, or from your economics class. Or perhaps you've even heard it from other people complaining about prices going up and up. Inflation simply means the increase in prices of goods.

There are many factors that affects the inflation rate. I will not discuss this further as it is easily accessible in the internet today. But how much it affects us? Below is the Consumer Price Index in the Philippines on the past 10 years:

  Source:  tradingeconomics

We can observe the following:

1. Inflation could reach up 10% as seen in 2008. This kind of inflation is really bad for the economy if sustained.
2. Inflation had fallen recently at around 1%. However, this is mainly due to the slump in oil price which reduces good's delivery cost. This will probably not last long and might even come back with a vengeance (i.e. a spike in inflation like in 2008).
3. Average inflation for the past 5 years is around 3.25%. We could use this as our basis for analyzing our investments.

This means that if you are hiding 1,000,000 pesos under your bed, that money is losing value at around P32,500 on the first year. That is around P2,700 per month. (You will lose less money on the succeeding years since your money has already become smaller.)

A good way to counter inflation are investments.

What is Investment?

In today's culture, the scope of the word "Investment" has already expanded (and perverted) so much it might even include gambling. So always be vigilant when you hear someone offering "Investment" especially the "sure" ones. Even if their intention is true (i.e. not a scam), there's a high chance it's NOT really an investment.

Benjamin Graham and David Dodd came up with a good definition of the word:
An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.

We shall call investments under this definition "true investments".
This definition has 3 important parts.

1. Promise of principal safety.
2. Satisfactory returns.
3. Thorough analysis.

Promise of Principal Safety

We often hear the phrase "High risks, high returns". But for true investments, high risk does not mean a big likelihood of your capital to disappear. We should not blindly accept higher risk in exchange of higher returns. Otherwise, we are just speculating or gambling.

High risk means there are a lot of things that might go wrong but we have a plan to mitigate them. Mitigating them may result to lower returns, but in the grand scheme of things, the principal should be safe.

Satisfactory Returns

Looking at the other side of the coin, true investment does not mean we should settle for low returns just to make sure the principal is safe.

For example, if a close friend wants to borrow P100,000 from you and promises to pay you back after 4 months with 1% interest. In addition, he is handing you his 1 year old Toyota Altis as collateral (and since he's your close friend, you know that the car is really his and already fully paid). It might seem a satisfactory return as the loan is collateralize (safety of principal) and the return is 3% (better if compared with short term time deposit at banks). But if you look at the inflation rate of 3.25%, that return is low. To make it a true investment, you should ask for 1.25% after 4 months (Yeah, it's just P250 difference, read on).

I'm not saying you shouldn't lend money to your friend, he might really need the cash (and I hope your friendship is not worth less than P1250). But don't treat it as an investment.
Also, "satisfactory" is subjective depending on the person investing. The inflation rate can be a basis but thare should be other factors too. Higher returns should be demanded for other risks.

Thorough Analysis

Now, let's go to the exciting part: Analysis. With thorough analysis, your goal is to have a plan in place to meet the first two requirements.

Let's go again with another example: Dice game.
Supposed you're at a casino and you got P1,200 to play with. There is a simple game of dice cube containing the number 1 to 6, one number on each side. You can play by betting P600 each time. The dealer will throw the dice, if the number is 6, you win and get your capital plus P3,600. If the number is 1 to 5, you lose and get nothing. You can bet again if you want.


As you may have analyzed, the odds is on your side.
1/6 of the time, you can earn P3,600. Which gives you a positive value of P600.
5/6 of the time, you can lose P600. Which gives you a negative value of -P500.

This gives you a total value of P100 for each deal.

(Note: Casinos won't have such deals. They earn from you by letting you play with odds against you, not the other way around.)

Looking again at our criteria:

1. Is the P100 return satisfactory? Definitely YES. Your capital is only P600, giving you 16% in less than 5 minutes.
2. Is there safety of principal? You only have P1,200 so can only play twice. You have 70% chance to lose all you money after playing 2 times. Thus, upon thorough analysis, NO, this is not a true investment.
   You may be feeling lucky as you have 2 chances of more than tripling your money, but that is speculating already.

Oh man, that's already my once in a life time golden opportunity! But if I have P15,000 to "invest" on this game, is it a true investment?
YES, it is. Although there is a possibility of you not winning even once at 25 deals, that would only be around 1% chance ( (5/6) ^ 25 ). If you lose your money this way, the odds may be with you, but the God is not.

The plan of playing multiple times to reduce your risk of losing your principal from 70% to 1% is your mitigation plan which makes this a true investment. This is one form of diversification.

Going Back to Stock Investing

You should choose stocks with good odds (under valued), and buy different companies. Buying only 1 or 2 stocks is like gambling with P1,200 only. The consensus recommendation for diversification is at least 25 stocks.

Things I Wish I Knew Before Investing in Stocks (Overview)

I Want to Invest in Stocks! Be Ultra Rich and Retire Young!

So you've heard of Equity Stocks and you've heard many stories about it. Stories where people built a fortune investing in stocks like Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, George Soros (although this guy probably got rich through currencies and bonds), but not Bill Gates if you're thinking about him.

However, there are more stories where people lost their life savings on stocks. People that had put everything they had on stocks then 1998 or 2008 happens. Afterwards, they swore never to invest in stocks again.

Stocks Are Too Risky! I Don't Want To Put My Money.

As with all investments, we should always do our due diligence. We should learn as much as we could first before buying our first stock. We must understand the risks involved and possible ways to mitigate them.

You can start by visiting websites like Investopedia, pinoymoneytalk, financial forums, and FAQ webpage of stock brokerages (like COL Financials and Philstocks). Stock brokerages usually provides free seminars about stock investing too.

Stocks Are Not Risky If You Know What You Are Doing

As the late Ernie Baron said, "Knowledge is Power". However, when I started investing, even after reading a lot, there are a number things I missed to learn. And this is a common experience for new investors. Consequently, we take more risk than necessary and get disappointed with the results. That's why I created a list of items investors should look at before putting their money on the table.

1. Inflation and Investment
2. Different Investment Options and Their Expected Yield and Risk
3. Investment Goal: Time Horizon and Risk Appetite
4. Asset Allocation and Diversification
5. Difference Between Investing and Speculating
6. Fundamental Analysis and Value Investing
7. Peso Cost Averaging
8. Emergency Fund
9. Insurance (Life or Mortgage Insurance)
10. Health is Wealth

I will discuss each one of them on a separate post.

Stock Market: Avoid High Fees By Transacting At Least 8000 Pesos

We can buy stocks by buying a single board lot. We might do this as we initially want to risk as little capital as possible when starting our stock investment. Or we want to do peso cost averaging. However, buying in single board lot is not a bright idea.

What is a board lot?

A board lot is the minimum unit of shares you can trade on the stock market. For example, if the board lot of a stock is 100, you can only buy in multiple of 100 (i.e. 100, 200, 300 ...). The board lot depends on the previous day closing price of the stock counter. You can refer to the following table for the board lot for different price ranges:

Board Lot and Fluctuation Table from COL Financial's FAQ

For example, if the stock price is P7.50, the board lot would be 100 shares. This means 1 board lot is P750 and you can buy around multiple of P750. Side note: You can buy on Odd Lot Board, but that would be for a separate discussion.

A single board lot is not expensive, but the fees for that are?

P750 is not a big sum of money (at least for the investing world). What's expensive is the trading fees charged to you if you trade a small amount. These fees are payment for processing your investment trading. Below is the fees rate for COL Financial:

COL Financial's Trading Fees

So for P750, the fees are:

Commission:	20	(20 or 0.25%, whichever is higher)
VAT:	2.4
PSE Tx Fee:	0.0375
SCCP:	0.075
Total Fees	P22.5125

So to buy 1 board lot, you need to pay P772.52. The fees are eating away almost 3% of your capital.

If you are buying every month (to do "peso cost averaging"), you would pay a sum of P9270.24 and P270.24 of that is for fees.

P270 is no big deal. I'll treat it as a gift for my broker.

Understandably, P270 is a very small amount to pay for one whole year. However, this is only for 1 stock counter. If you are diversifying to 5 stocks (which is still a pretty bad diversification number), fees would easily balloon to P1350.

What should we do?

Looking at the computation above, the main culprit is the minimum commission fee of P20. The commission rate is only 0.25%, but because of the minimum amount, the effective commission rate increases to around 3%.

To avoid this, we should transact in amount of at least 8000 (or close to 8000). 0.25% of P8000 is P20 which is exactly equal to the minimum fee.

Case 1: Investing only P750 per month

If you want to buy only 1 stock counter and willing to invest P750 pesos per month, I suggest that you collect your money for the whole year and buy once every year. You would be able to collect P9000 and the fees would only be around P26. You are saving yourself P250 of fees.

If you want to do Peso-cost-averaging becase you want to avoid buying at a bad time, then you have to pay extra ~P250 in commission. My opinion is "Don't do that because it's stupid".

In addition, P9000 investment for 1 year is too small. That's just the price of one decent smartphone. At least invest yearly the price of a decent laptop.

Case 2: Investing P3750 per month on 5 different stocks

If you want to diversify (because "it's the smart thing to do"), better buy every two months. With P7500 (3750 x 2), the fees would be ~P23. For a year, it will be ~P276. That would be a lot smaller than P1350 in fees if you stubornly buy all your 5 stocks in single board lot every month.

I'm not sure about other people but I don't want to make my broker P1000 richer than necessary every year.

Summary

Buy at least P8000 per transaction. (That's all.)